ADP Employment: Moderate Gain

March 30, 2016
Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in March, more than expected, as Trade/Transport/Utilities hiring accelerated modestly, adding 44k jobs, compared to the 6 month average of 35k. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest slight upside risk to the 205k consensus for Friday. The Q1 average for ADP is now 199k vs Q4 of 219k. ADP National Employment ROSE by 200k in March, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 195k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 9k from the previous estimate. This was the 68th consecutive monthly increase in private payrolls. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 206k per month, lifting employment to 2.1% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 9k jobs and Manufacturing gained 3k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 17k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 191k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 28k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 42k, and Financial Activities increasing by 14k workers. Small Firms hired 86k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 76k employees while Large Firms added 39k positions.
Article by contingentmacro