Jobless Claims: Higher Again, Trend Shifting
December 17, 2020
Bottom Line: Claims rose again last week as many governments implemented new shutdowns for the virus resurgence. The increase was led by a jump in CA and IL for the second week in a row. Most of the difficult seasonal adjustments for the Thanksgiving holiday are behind us at this point, and the trend has turned concerningly higher. Our Nowcasting model suggests claims have increased again this week, potentially pushing above one million again for the first time since June. Jobless Claims ROSE by 23k during the week ended December 12nd to 885k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 818k.The 4-week average ROSE by 34.3k to 813k and the 13-week average ROSE by 1.5k to 796k. Continuing Claims FELL by 273k during the week ended December 5th to 5,508k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 13,385k to 5,781k.The 4-week average FELL by 216k to 5,726k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 312k to 5,493k during the week ended November 28th. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 3.8% during the week ended December 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors