ADP Employment: Slower Hiring Again in November

December 2, 2020
Bottom Line: ADP reported slower than expected job growth in November for the second straight month as hiring slowed in the services sector again. Manufacturing and construction jobs also saw much slower gains. The last three months saw job gains average 488k per month, well below the 6-month pace of 1.1 million. The initial re-hiring wave was extreme, but the subsequent gains still have not been enough to bring total payrolls back to pre-pandemic levels. This report suggests the potential for a downside miss of the consensus of 486k for the government's nonfarm payroll report due Friday. ADP National Employment ROSE by 307k in November, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 440k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 41k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have decreased by an average of -767k per month, lifting employment to 7.1% BELOW its year-ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 31k jobs as Manufacturing gained just 8k workers. Construction gained 22k jobs. Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 276k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 55k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 31k, and Financial Activities increasing by 8k workers. Small Firms hired 110k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 139k employees while Large Firms added 58k positions.