Jobless Claims: Decline As Seasonal Factors Start to Subside
August 22, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell modestly more than expected as unadjusted claims fell 17k while the seasonal factor had expected a decline of about 7k. Seasonal adjustment factors that often create volatility in the summer months are starting to subside. Looking through the volatility we see a steady to even slightly improving trend with the 4-week average at 2145 still below the 13-week average at 217k. Overall, the labor market still appears steady amid concern over business investment. Jobless Claims FELL by 12k during the week ended August 17th, 209k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 216k.The 4-week average ROSE by 0.5k to 215k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 217k. Continuing Claims FELL by 54k during the week ended August 10th to 1,674k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,728k.The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 1,697k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 63k to 1,617k during the week ended August 3rd. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended August 10th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors