Jobless Claims: Surprise Decline, Mostly Seasonals

Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell sharply at the headline level, but most of the decline was due to the seasonal factor. Non-seasonally adjusted claims rose about 18k, but the seasonal factor, heavily impacted by the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday, expected an increase of 88k. Overall, expect continued volatility in the headline figures, but the trend remains very slowly lower. Our Nowcast model, which only uses non-seasonally adjusted data, suggests claims fell to about 180k unadjusted so far this week, confirming the broader trend. Initial Jobless Claims FELL sharply in the week ended November 20th, DOWN 71k to 199k, BELOW the 4-week average of 252k, BELOW the 13-week average of 301k, and 563k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 13th of Nov were revised up from +268k to +270k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE slightly, UP 18.2k to 259k.
 
Continuing Claims FELL 60k in the week ended November 13th to 2.05M, BELOW the 4-week average of 2.12M, BELOW the 13-week average of 2.5M and 4.09M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 6th of Nov were revised up from +2.08M to +2.11M.The Insured Jobless Rate FELL -10bps in the week ended November 13th to 1.5%. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.