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Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Despite Anomalies

November 10, 2021
Bottom Line: The Department of Labor released jobless claims a day earlier than usual due to the Veteran's Day holiday tomorrow. Many states likely submitted estimated advanced claims to meet the early deadline. Claims fell modestly even with several anomalies, including a doubling of claims in Kentucky and a 50% increase in Ohio.  Expect that volatility to ease over the next two weeks. Then seasonal volatility will start again with the Thanksgiving holiday week.  Overall, on a trend basis, claims are headed in the right direction, showing the labor market recovery continues, albeit slowly.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims have continued to drop slightly this week.
Jobless Claims FELL by 4k during the week ended November 6th to 267k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 260k.The 4-week average FELL by 7.3k to 278k and the 13 week average FELL by 8.5k to 319k.
Continuing Claims ROSE by 59k during the week ended October 30th to 2,160k, The 4-week average FELL by 111k to 2,245k
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 19k to 1,904k during the week ended October 23th.

The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended October 30th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.