Employment: Back-To-Back Strong Months Start 2020, Despite Virus
March 6, 2020
Bottom Line: Job gains were stronger than expected in February for the second month in a row. Construction gains were strong amid unseasonably better weather in parts of the country, and manufacturing jobs rebounded. While it is too early to see any impact from the coronavirus, there were declines in retail trade and wholesale/transportation services, sectors that would likely see the earliest impact. Leisure and hospitality, though, were particularly strong. Health services saw strong growth. Wage gains were slightly better than expected with average hourly earnings growth continuing to hover near 3%. Finally, the unemployment rate fell back down after last month's small bounce as the labor force participation ratio held nearly steady. Overall, this was another solid report on the labor market.
Payroll Employment rose by 273k in February, compared with market expectations for an increase of 165k. The prior 2 months were revised, higher in January by 48k and higher in December by 37k.
Government jobs ROSE by 45k. Consequently, private sector jobs ROSE by 228k. Overall employment is now 1.6% ABOVE its year ago level, Over the past 12 months, 2,409k jobs have been created.
- In February, the job gains were in Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-6k with -7k of those in Retail Trade),
- Professional & Business Services (+41k with a slip of 3.3k in Temp Help Services),
- Education & Health Services (+57k),
- Leisure & Hospitality (+51k),
- Government (+45k),
- Construction (+42k),
- Financial Activities (+26k),
- and Manufacturing (+15k).
Article by
Contingent Macro Advisors