Consumer Confidence: Rebound To Start Q2
April 30, 2019
Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the present situation and expectations for the future rebounded sharply in April, according to the Conference Board survey. While at overall high levels, both the present situation and the expectations indices are still below levels seen just this February and last Fall. This continues to suggest confidence has likely peaked and is slowly waning. Still, consumers' prospects for income growth suggested consumer spending growth should still be positive, if modestly slower than levels seen in 2018 (likely similar to slightly better than that seen in the 1st Quarter GDP report last week). Consumer Confidence ROSE by 5.0 points in April to 129.2, compared with market expectations for an increase to 126.8. The index is now 2.9% ABOVE its year ago level. Present Situation Index ROSE by 5.3 points to 168.3. The index is 6.9% ABOVE its year ago level. The Expectations Index ROSE by 4.7 points to 103.0. The index is 1.2% BELOW its year ago level. The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are â€œhard to getâ€ from the percentage who said jobs are â€œplentifulâ€ , moved higher by 4.8 points to 33.5.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors