Consumer Confidence: Unexpected Increase Again
July 31, 2018
Bottom Line: Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose again in July as consumers' assessment of their present situations hit a 15+ year high. Expectations have declined, though, falling again in July as consumers' assessments of the labor market and near-term economic outlook outlook fell. Overall, this report was mixed with expectations just holding in the range set since November '16 -- this component bears watching going forward.
Consumer Confidence ROSE by 0.3 points in July to 127.4, compared with market expectations for a decline to 126.0. The index is now 6.2% ABOVE its year ago level.
Present Situation Index ROSE by 4.2 points to 165.9. The index is 14.1% ABOVE its year ago level.
The Expectations Index FELL by 2.3 points to 101.7. The index is 1.3% BELOW its year ago level.
The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get†from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful†, moved higher by 2.8 points to 28.1.
Article by
Contingent Macro Advisors