Jobless Claims: Seasonal And Weather Boost Recedes

Bottom Line: Jobless claims hit their lowest level since February 1973. But the sharp decline was heavily influenced by seasonal factors and the weather with several states submitting estimates and the Dept. of Labor estimating still others. While we'd expect more volatility due to these factors, the trend rate of claims should still move towards this new low over the coming months. For now the 4-week average is at 245k, above the 13-week average that is now 240k. This would normally indicate a turn in trend higher but the seasonal volatility makes that unlikely. Jobless Claims FELL by 41k during the week ended January 13th, 220k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 249k.The 4-week average FELL by 6.3k to 245k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 240k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 76k during the week ended January 6th to 1,952k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,914k to 1,876k.The 4-week average ROSE by 4k to 1,921k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 95k to 2,401k during the week ended December 30th. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.4% during the week ended January 6th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.