Results include
Economic Indicators
Sep 28, 2023
Bottom Line: The third reading of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP showed growth of 2.1% annualized, unchanged from prior reports. Consumption was notably lower, though, rising 0.8% in the quarter, down from a previously reported 1.7%. This suggests the consumer ended...
Sep 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose only slightly after falling five weeks. Seasonal factors had only a small impact on the reading last week. Moreover, there were no signs of any impact from the autoworker strike. State-level data showed only minor moves...
Sep 26, 2023
Bottom Line: Prices rose in July as the housing market continued to rebound in the months leading up to the latest surge in mortgage rates. Prices were higher in nearly every primary metro market, with the exception of Portland. Year-on-year...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell again in August, countering expectations for a small rebound. The medium-term trend in sales was lower again, even before much of the recent increase in mortgage rates. The long-term trend was firmly to the...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fifth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. This latest report was influenced by seasonal factors, which had expected an increase of nearly 18k versus actual unadjusted claims that were nearly...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey fell again, disappointing expectations after a surprise rebound last month. The bottoming process in the goods economy remains volatile. Nonetheless, there are signs of a slow turn in manufacturing after several quarters of...
Sep 20, 2023
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate range from 5.25%-5.50%. The Fed maintained its projections for one more 25bp hike this year, however lowered its rate cuts from 1.00% to 0.50% for 2024, which implies rates are...
Sep 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rebounded sharply last week, led by a big surprising jump in the refi index. Mortgage rates continued to hover around 7.50% adjusted for points paid on the average 30-year fixed rate. While the jump in the...
Sep 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell sharply in August, much more than expected, hitting the lowest levels since the pandemic. The aways-volatile multifamily sector led the declines, though, suggesting the magnitude of the decline was likely just normal volatility. That said,...
Sep 15, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment fell more than expected in the preliminary September reading. Consumers' assessments of their current situation deteriorated modestly, correlating with the increase in gasoline prices. However, their year-ahead inflation expectations dropped sharply, down...
Sep 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose more than expected in August, with modest negative revisions to prior data that still left sales higher. Core sales were solid as online sales held flat after very strong gains in July amid Amazon's Prime...
Sep 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose more than expected than in August as the goods economy appears to be starting to bottom. Critical sectors like trade/transportation/warehousing saw notably higher prices. Processed and unprocessed goods prices were sharply higher, up 2.1% and...
Sep 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications hit another new low last week, as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovered around 7.50% adjusted for points paid. Purchase volumes were a touch higher but still near historic lows. Refis, meanwhile, had been holding well...
Sep 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose nearly as expected in August at the headline level, driven by higher gasoline prices. Core prices rose a bit more than expected, with an upside surprise in transportation services (mostly airfares). Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER),...
Sep 7, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor again, and claims in Ohio continued to fall as the state agency continued to work through fraud issues. Overall,...
Sep 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications hit another new low last week, despite a retreat in mortgage rates back below 7.50%. Averaging 7.41%, adjusted for points-paid, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was still 54 basis points above its one-year average, hampering affordability. The...
Aug 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims fell in Hawaii after a one-week jump following the devastating fire in Maui. Ohio, which had been struggling...
Aug 30, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported lower-than-expected hiring in August, but there were positive revisions to prior data, which had already surprised expectations four months running. This report has had a waning correlation with nonfarm payrolls in the national employment report (due...
Aug 30, 2023
Bottom Line: The second reading of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP showed growth of 2.1% annualized, revised lower by 30 basis points. Nonresidential fixed investment drove the negative revisions, accounting for 20 of the 30 basis points, while inventories flipped from...
Aug 29, 2023
Bottom Line: Prices rose in June as the housing market continued to rebound in the months leading up to the latest surge in mortgage rates. Prices were higher in nearly every primary metro market. The strongest markets were some of...