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Existing Home Sales: Better But Still Trending Lower, Mortgage Apps Low

September 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales were nearly unchanged in August, beating expectations for a moderate decline. But the trend remained to the downside with median prices edging lower. Inventory levels remained historically lean but were slowly trending higher with months' supply at 3.2 months, up from just 1.5 at the beginning of the year. Finally,  we should remember that existing home sales are based on closings; thus, these August data are lagged. Since this tally, mortgage purchase applications (graphs below) have fallen, rebounding slightly last week but remaining firmly in a downtrend.
Existing Home Sales were nearly unchanged,  DOWN -0.02 million annualized units to 4.8, BELOW the 3-Month average of 4.91, BELOW the 6-Month average of 5.25 and -1.19 BELOW the year-ago level.
 
Single-family sales
FELL -0.04 million annualized units to 4.28, BELOW the 3-Month average of 4.39, BELOW the 6-Month average of 4.68 and -1.02 BELOW the year-ago level.
 
Median prices nationwide FELL -9.7k dollars to 389.5, BELOW the 3-Month average of 400.83, BELOW the 6-Month average of 397.62 but 28 ABOVE the year-ago level.

Inventory
FELL -0.02 million units to 1.28, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 1.28, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 1.16, nearly in line with the year-ago level of 1.28.
 
Months supply was unchanged at 3.2, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 3.1, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 2.67 and 0.6 ABOVE the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro