Jobless Claims: Retrace Much of Hurricane-Related Jump Already
October 4, 2018
Bottom Line: While there may still be volatility in jobless claims in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Kentucky in the wake of Hurricane Florence the final week of September saw a return to pre-hurricane levels. The trend remains towards steadily better jobs data with the 4-week average of claims at 207k, below the 13-week average that is now 211k. Most early indicators suggest another solid jobs report for September when released tomorrow. Jobless Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended September 29th, 207k, compared with market expectations for no change to 215k. The 4-week average ROSE by 0.5k to 207k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.9k to 211k. Continuing Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended September 22nd to 1,650k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,661k to 1,663k.The 4-week average FELL by 15k to 1,665k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 18k to 1,393k during the week ended September 15th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended September 22nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors