Jobless Claims: New Claims Increase Modestly

January 21, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed modestly and are at their highest level since July. The 4-week average is at 285k, above the 13-week average that is now 275k, indicating the labor market improvement trend may be losing momentum. Continuing claims fell modestly and remained on their 6-year long declining trend. Jobless Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended January 16th to 293k, compared with market expectations for a decrease to 278k. The prior week was revised slightly lower from 284k to 283k. The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 285k. and the 13 week average ROSE by 3k to 275k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims FELL by 56k during the week ended January 9th to 2,208k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,263k to 2,264k. The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 2,228k. continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 136k to 2,668k during the week ended January 2nd. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL to 1.6% during the week ended January 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro