ADP Employment: Moderate Gain

January 6, 2016
ADP National Employment ROSE by 257k in December, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 198k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 29k from the previous estimate. This was the 65th consecutive monthly increase in private payrolls. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 199k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 23k jobs while Manufacturing gained only 2k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 24k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 234k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 66k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 38k, and Financial Activities increasing by 13k workers. Small Firms hired 95k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 65k employees while Large Firms added 97k positions. Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in December, more than expected as Professional/Business services hiring accelerated, adding 66k jobs, roughly 70% more than the 12 month average of 38k. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest modest upside risk to the 200k consensus for Friday. The Q4 average for ADP is now 214k vs Q3 of 183k.
Article by contingentmacro