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Jobless Claims: Declines But Still Over 2.5 million

May 14, 2020

Bottom Line: While slowly declining, the number of people filing for unemployment insurance increased by 2.6 million people (2.981 seasonally adjusted) last week. Google search data predicted this modest decline but now suggests the current week is running a touch higher again as of last night. Since the middle of March, a stunning 36.5 million people have filed for claims. The current week is the survey week for the May employment report -- early indications suggest we will see another decline in payrolls of more than 12 million.

Jobless Claims FELL by 195k during the week ended May 9th to 2981k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 2500k. The 4-week average FELL by 564.0k to 3617k and the 13-week average ROSE by 213.6k to 2895k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 456k during the week ended May 2nd to 22,833k. The 4-week average ROSE by 2730k to 19,760k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 629k to 21,143k during the week ended April 25th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.3% to 15.7% during the week ended May 2nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors