Consumer Confidence: Sharp Decline As Expected
April 28, 2020
Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the economy were sharply lower, mostly as expected, amid the novel coronavirus shutdowns. The index recorded its largest decline in history, led by the present situation index. In stark contrast to last month, the expectations index rose as consumers to improve over the next six months. Outlooks on the labor market were mixed -- consumers expected more jobs to become available in the near future, but their expectations for their personal income were lower. Overall, this report shows the consumer is on edge but expecting a modest improvement in economic conditions. Clearly, the success of re-openings in terms of both economic activity and coronavirus infection rates will be very important for consumer confidence.
Consumer Confidence FELL by 31.9 points in April to 86.9, compared with market expectations for a decline to 87.0.
The index is now 32.7% BELOW its year-ago level.
Present Situation Index FELL by 90.3 points to 76.4. The index is 54.8% BELOW its year-ago level.
The Expectations Index ROSE by 7.0 points to 93.8. The index is 8.7% BELOW its year-ago level.
The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved lower by 43.1 points to -13.6.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors