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Case-Shiller Home Prices:  Coastal Woes Spread

May 28, 2019

Bottom Line: Home prices rose just slightly nationwide in March as falling prices on the coasts spread to major markets like Dallas and Chicago. Higher tax regions saw modest price declines over the last six - to nine-months as buyers adjusted to federal tax treatment of local property and mortgage interest -- but there are hints that some of that adjustment might be over. San Francisco and San Diego both saw a rebound in prices in March. Vegas remained the hottest market over the last year but was flat in March. Overall the trend is towards very slow house price appreciation on average nationwide.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in March to 215.3, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.5%.

Home prices are 2.6% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 4.2% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 57.4% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.7% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 15 of the 20 metro areas in March (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

  • Los Angeles had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.6% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 9.6%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors