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Jobless Claims: Seasonal Adjustment

April 25, 2019

Bottom Line: Claims jumped last week, mostly due to difficult seasonal adjustments around the Good Friday holiday. The Department of Labor's models had expected a decline of nearly 19k due to seasonal factors, but the actual tally showed an increase of nearly 15k claimants. Additionally advanced state-level data showed one-of increases in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Jersey that appear to have temporarily skewed the national tally. On a trend basis the 4-week average is at 206k, below the 13-week average that is now 218k, indicating the labor market trends are still quite strong.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 37k during the week ended April 20th, 230k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 200k.The 4-week average ROSE by 4.5k to 206k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.5k to 218k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 1k during the week ended April 13th to 1,655k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,736k to 1,654k.The 4-week average FELL by 25k to 1,688k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 26k to 1,704k during the week ended April 6th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended April 13th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors