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Jobless Claims:  Modest To Moderate Looking Through Volatility

March 7, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless Claims fell modestly on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended March 2nd as the actually tally rose less than the seasonal factor. Amid significant seasonal and one-off volatility the 4-week average is at 226k, above the 13-week average that is now 223k. Looking through the volatility the trend remains towards modest to moderate strength in labor markets.

Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended March 2nd, 223k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 228k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.0k to 226k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 223k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 50k during the week ended February 23th to 1,755k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,736k to 1,726k.The 4-week average ROSE by 5k to 1,767k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 17k to 2,110k during the week ended February 16th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.2% during the week ended February 23th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.