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Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Expect Weather Impacts

March 29, 2018

Bottom Line: Initial claims declined moderately. The 4-week average is at 224k, below the 13-week average that is now 228k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving. Expect volatility in the coming weeks as weather in the Midwest and East impacts collections.

Jobless Claims FELL by 12k during the week ended March 24th, 215k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 230k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.3k to 224k and the 13 week average FELL by 2.5k to 228k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 35k during the week ended March 17th to 1,871k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,828k to 1,836k.The 4-week average FELL by 16k to 1,867k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 90k to 2,104k during the week ended March 10th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.3% during the week ended March 17th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors