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Consumer Confidence:  Expectations Rebound to Start 2018

January 30, 2018

Bottom Line: After a surprise decline in the expectations component in December, the index of Consumer Confidence rebounded more than expected in January. Confidence, at 125.4, is nearly equal to its three month average of 125.7. Details were mixed as 6-month outlooks for business fell slightly, outlooks for income fell modestly and employment rose moderately. Overall, though, consumer confidence remains quite strong looking at levels relative to history, as well as the recent trend.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 2.3 points in January to 125.4, compared with market expectations for a decline to 123.0. The index is now 12.4% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index FELL by 1.2 points to 155.3. The index is 19.5% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index ROSE by 4.7 points to 105.5. The index is 6.2% ABOVE its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved higher by 0.9 points to 21.2.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors