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Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump Mostly Due To Seasonal Adjustments

November 16, 2017
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed climbed again and are at the highest level since the end of September. That said, all of this week's increase was due to seasonal adjustments, which will be increasingly difficult over the next 8 weeks. Actual claims fell last week, but the seasonal adjustment factor expected a larger decline. The 4-week average is at 238k, below the 13-week average that is now 250k, indicating the labor market continue to trend positively.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended November 11st, 249k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 235k.The 4-week average ROSE by 6.5k to 238k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.3k to 250k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 44k during the week ended November 4th to 1,860k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,884k to 1,904k.The 4-week average FELL by 9k to 1,887k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 16k to 1,614k during the week ended October 28th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.3% during the week ended November 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.