The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Jobless Claims: Another Surprise Decline
October 19, 2017
Bottom Line: As hurricane recovery continued into the middle of October, we continued to see volatility in jobless claim data. That said, last week's declines were not only in those states affected by hurricanes. We also saw declines in Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois that were larger than seasonal adjustments suggested. The 4-week average is at 248k, below the 13-week average that is now 251k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly. Finally, these data were for the survey week for the October employment report and would normally suggest upside risk to the current 235k non-farm payroll growth consensus were it not for the hurricane-related volatility.
Jobless Claims FELL by 22k during the week ended October 14th, 222k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 240k.The 4-week average FELL by 9.5k to 248k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.9k to 251k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 16k during the week ended October 7th to 1,888k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,889k to 1,904k.The 4-week average FELL by 23k to 1,906k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 23k to 1,559k during the week ended September 30th.
The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.3% during the week ended October 7th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.