Skip to Main Content

Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.

Durable Goods: Solid Gains For Key GDP Metrics

September 27, 2017
Bottom Line: Amid significant volatility and uncertainty about the impact of the hurricanes, core nondefense capital goods shipments, a key indicator for the business fixed investment component of GDP, continued to grow steadily in August, with July and August data suggesting solid 3Q gains. Overall, durable goods orders have risen at a 3.2% annualized pace in the last three months. Looking at the past 12 months, hardgood orders have increased at a 5.1% annualized rate.

Durable Goods Orders ROSE by 1.7% in August, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.0%.

Transportation Orders ROSE by 4.9% with civilian aircraft orders climbing by 44.8% while motor vehicle orders climbed by 1.5%. Ex-transportation orders ROSE by 0.2%.

Core Durable Goods Orders, those excluding both civilian aircraft and defense, ROSE by 0.75% and are 4.2% ABOVE their year ago level.

Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments FELL. Including civilian aircraft, they FELL by 1.5% and excluding them they ROSE by 0.7%

Durable manufacturing inventories ROSE by 0.3%.

The July and August average of nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, proxies for equipment and software investment, is moderately above its Q2 level, suggesting that capital spending will have a positive Q3 impact on GDP growth.