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Case-Shiller Home Prices:  Stronger Than Expected

September 26, 2017

Bottom Line: Tight supply drove home prices up more than expected in July, pushing year-on-year price gains to nearly 6%. While Portland and Seattle still lead the nation in yearly gains, the strongest gains in July were seen in the San Francisco and Los Angeles metro areas. Chicago and the Washington DC area remain the weakest with Chicagoland home prices actually falling in July. Overall, the pace of gains nationwide accelerated to challenge the top of the trend range of 5.5-6.0% annual gains.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in July to 199.4, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.2%. Home prices are 5.9% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 3.5% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 45.7% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.7% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 17 of the 20 metro areas in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.1% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.2%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors