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Jobless Claims: Resuming Declines as Labor Market Improves

August 17, 2017

Bottom Line: As we noted last week in looking at the state-level data, several smaller states that saw increases in the first week of the month corrected lower again. This sent total claims below the lows seen earlier this year. The 4-week average is at 241k, below the 13-week average that is now 243k, indicating the labor market are continuing to improve after some loss in momentum in the early summer. Finally, these data are for the survey week for the August Employment Situation report--the weekly figure is slightly lower than while the 4-week average is slightly lower than than in July.

Jobless Claims FELL by 12k during the week ended August 12nd, 232k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 240k.The 4-week average FELL by 0.5k to 241k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.1k to 243k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended August 5th to 1,953k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,951k to 1,956k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,960k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 32k to 1,889k during the week ended July 29th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended August 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors