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Jobless Claims: Rebound Amid Volatile Seasonal Adjustments

July 27, 2017

Bottom Line: Seasonal adjustments continued to have a large impact on last week's jobless claims as unadjusted claims were down nearly 38k while the seasonal factor expected nearly 48k. The 4-week average is at 244k, above the 13-week average that is now 242k. While this would normally suggest a potential turn in trend, seasonal adjustments have been substantial. Adjusting for this volatility, the trend suggests labor markets are stable at historically very low levels of jobless claims.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended July 22nd, 244k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 240k.The 4-week average was UNCHANGED at 244k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.0k to 242k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended July 15th to 1,964k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,977k to 1,949k.The 4-week average ROSE by 5k to 1,964k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 23k to 1,974k during the week ended July 8th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended July 15th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors