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Consumer Sentiment: Expectations Lead Decline

July 14, 2017
Bottom Line: The early read on July consumer sentiment suggests a marked decline in consumers' expectations about future economic growth. While still above this time last year, the expectations component is nearly back to pre-election levels. Consumers' assessment of the current economic situation remain strong, though, up in July and at cycle highs. The survey's economist noted "the same pattern repeatedly recorded around past cyclical peaks" as expectations turn lower first while current conditions remain high.

Consumer Sentiment FELL by 2.0 points in early July to 93.1%, compared with market expectations for a decrease to 95.0%. Despite this month's slight decline, sentiment is now 3.4% ABOVE its year ago level.

Current Conditions ROSE by 0.7 points to 113.2%. This is 3.9% ABOVE their year ago level.

Consumer Expectations FELL by 3.7 points to 80.2%. Despite this month's modest decline, expectations are 3.1% ABOVE its year ago level.