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Jobless Claims: Holiday-related Estimates Skew Data 

June 1, 2017
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose coming into the long holiday weekend in the US last week. But with the holiday weekend over half a dozen states either reported estimates or were estimated by the OUI staff - California reported an estimated increase of nearly 5k, for instance . With this morning's ADP report and tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, markets can safely look past the holiday volatility in claims for the next week. The trend remains positive with the 4-week average at 238k, below the 13-week average that is now 244k.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 13k during the week ended May 27th, 248k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 238k. The 4-week average ROSE by 2.5k to 238k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.6k to 244k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 9k during the week ended May 20th to 1,915k, after the prior week was revised modestly lower from 2,052k to 1,924k.The 4-week average FELL by 16k to 1,915k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 28k to 1,760k during the week ended May 13th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended May 20th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.