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Jobless Claims: Another Decline, Near Recent Lows

April 13, 2017

Bottom Line: After dropping sharply in the final week of March, claims held near their lows last week, suggesting continued steady gains in US labor markets. The 4-week average is at 247k, above the 13-week average that is now 245k, normally this might suggest a turn in trend but given the latest two weeks of data and that the jump in mid-March was mostly due to seasonal calculations, the trend is actually continuing to show steady gains for labor.

Jobless Claims FELL by 1k during the week ended April 8th, 234k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 245k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.0k to 247k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 245k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 7k during the week ended April 1st to 2,028k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,052k to 2,035k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 2,026k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 85k to 2,139k during the week ended March 25th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended April 1st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors