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Jobless Claims: Highest in 7 Weeks, Mostly Due to Seasonal Adjustments

March 23, 2017

Bottom Line: Seasonally adjusted claims rose sharply as the seasonal adjustment factor expected a decline of over 10k, while the non-seasonally adjusted tally rose modestly. There was also volatility in report caused by spikes in both Ohio and Kansas. On net, given the seasonal adjustments that are often due to weather in previous years skewing the seasonal calculation, there is little change in the trend. The 4-week average is at 237k, still below the 13-week average that is now 245k.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 15k during the week ended March 18th, 258k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 240k.The 4-week average ROSE by 0.8k to 237k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.3k to 245k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 30k during the week ended March 11st to 2,000k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,030k to 2,060k.The 4-week average FELL by 16k to 2,039k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 99k to 2,349k during the week ended March 4th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended March 11st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors