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Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound From Record Lows

March 9, 2017

Bottom Line: We noted last week that the President's Holiday may have skewed the record low 223k print by about 18k claims. And, indeed, this week, claims rebounded by 20k, mostly a result of seasonal adjustments. Still, the 4-week average is at 234k, below the 13-week average that is now 247k, indicating the labor market trends are improving modestly. While this data won't impact tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, the February claims data and other indicators like ADP and the employment component of non-manufacturing ISM suggest a print near 200k is likely.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 20k during the week ended March 4th, 243k, compared with market expectations for no change to 238k.The 4-week average FELL by 6.3k to 234k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.2k to 247k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 6k during the week ended February 25th to 2,058k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,060k to 2,064k.The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 2,066k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 96k to 2,394k during the week ended February 18th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended February 25th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors