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Jobless Claims: Slight Bounce Off Record Lows

February 16, 2017

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims continue to surprise expectations to the downside. Expected to rebound 16k after hitting 40+ year lows last week, they rose just 5k in the week ending February 11th. The 4-week average is at 244k, below the 13-week average that is now 252k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 5k during the week ended February 11st, 239k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 250k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.8k to 244k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.5k to 252k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended February 4th to 2,076k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,100k to 2,079k.The 4-week average ROSE by 4k to 2,080k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 13k to 2,481k during the week ended January 28th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended February 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors