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Jobless Claims: Rebound Amid Holiday Volatility

November 23, 2016
Bottom Line: After hitting 35-year lows during a week shortened by the Veteran's Day holiday, claims rose back to trend, 251k last week. The 4-week average is also at 251k, below the 13-week average that is now 254k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly. Claims in California accounted for nearly all of the rise as benefit collections there appear to have been more heavily impacted by the prior week's holiday. Expect more volatility in the coming weeks with the US Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow impacting next week's claims report. And while the Christmas and New Year's holidays fall on weekends, seasonal adjustments will be difficult.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 18k during the week ended November 19th, 251k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 257k.The prior week was revised moderately lower from 254k to 233k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.0k to 251k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 254k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 60k during the week ended November 12nd to 2,043k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,041k to 1,983k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 2,025k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 116k to 1,857k during the week ended November 5th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.5% during the week ended November 12nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.