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Jobless Claims: Trend Resumes

November 10, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims fell after rebounding for much of October. The trend remains towards slow but modest improvement in the labor market as most of the prior increase came from volatlity in smaller states like Kentucky and Missouri. Those data appear to be coming back to trend now. The 4-week average is at 260k, above the 13-week average that is now 257k -- normally this would be a concern for the trend where it not for the 13-week average remaining in a downtrend and the shorter average being impacted by what appears to be one-off volatility in October.

Jobless Claims FELL by 11k during the week ended November 5th, 254k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 260k. The prior week was revised slightly lower from 265k to 261k. The 4-week average ROSE by 1.8k to 260k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.9k to 257k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 18k during the week ended October 29th to 2,041k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,026k to 2,023k.The 4-week average FELL by 2k to 2,040k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 26k to 1,762k during the week ended October 22nd.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended October 29th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.