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ADP Employment: Less Than Expected With Positive Revisions

November 2, 2016

Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in October, less than expected as revisions to the prior 3 months added 54k jobs. Goods producing industries saw sharp declines, led by construction jobs. Yesterday's construction spending report confirmed activity there has contracted modestly in recent months. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report leaves some downside risk to the consensus estimates for Friday's non-farm-payroll report, currently expected to show a gain of 175k jobs in September.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 154k in September, compared with market expectations for a gains of 165k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 54k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 186k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 18k jobs. Manufacturing lost 1k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 15k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 165k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 69k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 17k, and Financial Activities increasing by 18k workers.

Small Firms hired 34k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 48k employees while Large Firms added 64k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors