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Jobless Claims: Retrace Some of Surprise Bounce

October 27, 2016

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims declined again after surprising gains in the prior week. Reported jobless claims in Kentucky accounted for much of the surprise bounce back over 260k but fell back down to trend levels in the recent week. The 4-week average is at 253k, below the 13-week average that is now 258k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly.

Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended October 22nd, 258k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 256k.The prior week was revised slightly higher from 260k to 261k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 253k and the 13 week average FELL by 1k to 258k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended October 15th to 2,039k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,057k to 2,054k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 2,051k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 33k to 1,740k during the week ended October 8th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended October 15th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors