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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Slightly Stronger than Expected, Holding 5+% YoY Gains

October 25, 2016

Bottom Line: Home prices were slightly higher in August, holding year-on-year gains a bit over 5%, which has been roughly the trend rate for nearly two years now. Any declines were very small, while there were strong gains in San Francisco (up 1% in August, 7.2% yoy), Seattle (up 0.8% in August, 12.1% yoy), Miami (up 0.6% in August, 7.7% yoy), and Dallas (up 0.5% in August, 9% yoy) . While the overall trend in higher home prices had been losing some momentum, it appears supply constraints that realtors have cited in several reports pushed prices modestly higher through the summer selling season, keeping the pace of annual gains just above 5% nationally.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) in August to 188.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Home prices are 5.2% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are still 8.9% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 37.6% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.4% on the month. Housing prices rose in 15 of the 20 metro areas in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

New York had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.7% while Portland had the largest year-over-year increase at 12.9%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors