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Jobless Claims: Rebound after New Lows

October 20, 2016

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims rebounded modestly after falling to 40+ year lows in the first week of October. These data are for the survey week for the October Employment Situation report--the weekly figure is slightly higher than last month while the 4-week average is modestly lower than than in September. While there will be more leading indicators before the November 4th release of October payroll data, this would suggest that October non-farm payroll growth will be inline with September.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 13k during the week ended October 15th, 260k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 250k. The prior week was revised slightly higher from 246k to 247k. The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 252k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 259k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 7k during the week ended October 8th to 2,057k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,046k to 2,050k.The 4-week average FELL by 13k to 2,058k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 1k to 1,709k during the week ended October 1st. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended October 8th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors