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Chicago PMI: Midwest Factory Order Growth Stabilizes

September 30, 2016

Bottom Line: Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region expanded modestly in September to 54.2%, rebounding after a sharp decline in August. The Production component of the survey saw sharp gains, while both new orders and order backlogs were unchanged. Overall the regional surveys present a mixed signal for the National ISM due Monday. Consensus estimates suggest it should rebound back above the 50 break-even level from a surprisingly weak 49.4 in August.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index ROSE by 2.7 points to 54.2% in September, above market expectations for an increase to 52.0%.

The report highlighted that the increase was led by a "sharp gain in Production, which rose 7.3 points to 59.8, the highest since January 2016."

New Orders and Order Backlogs were UNCHANGED. Employment FELL modestly after hitting new highs in August.

ISM Preview - recapping the other regional indices:
On an ISM weighted basis Empire State fell by -11.0%. Richmond climbed by 3.6%, Philly fell by -1.3%, Kansas City increased by 10.9%, and Dallas fell by -0.3%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors