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Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Moderately

July 7, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims declined moderately and are at their lowest level since mid-April. Part of the decline was driven by a 3.7k drop in California, after rising 5.1k the week prior. The 4-week average is at 265k, below the 13-week average that is now 266k, indicating the labor market trends are improving slightly.

Jobless Claims FELL by 16k during the week ended July 2nd to 254k, the lowest level since mid-April, compared with market expectations for an increase to 269k. The prior week was revised slightly higher from 268k to 270k. The 4-week average FELL by 3k to 265k and the 13 week average FELL by 1k to 266k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed.

Continuing Claims FELL by 44k during the week ended June 25th to 2,124k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,120k to 2,168k. The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 2,148k. Continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 42k to 2,052k during the week ended June 18th. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended June 25th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro