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Jobless Claims: Modest rise as expected

June 30, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed modestly but are now back to where they finished May. There has been significant volatility in the reports from New York and California over the last 8 weeks. The 4-week average is at 267k, same as the 13-week average, indicating the labor market trends are stabilizing with claims at a low level after years of improvement.

Jobless Claims FELL by 18k during the week ended June 18th to 259k, the lowest level in the past 8 weeks, compared with market expectations for a decline to 270k. The 4-week average FELL by 2k to 267k and the 13 week average was UNCHANGED at 268k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed.

Continuing Claims FELL by 20k during the week ended June 11th to 2,142k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,157k to 2,162k. The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 2,147k. Continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 10k to 1,996k during the week ended June 4th. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended June 11th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro