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Consumer Confidence: Increases Moderately

June 28, 2016
Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the economy improved in June, more than market expectations. Confidence, at 98.0, is above its three month average of 95.0. Consumers' assessments of current situations increased and headline expectations rose moderately but have been rather volatile month-to-month. Additionally, details were positive as 6-month outlooks for business, income and employment rose modestly. That said, we should note that this survey was taken before the UK's "Brexit" vote, so to the extent those headlines might make consumers nervous about global growth, we won't see that in the data until next month.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 5.6 points in June to 98.0, compared with market expectations for an increase to 93.5. This is its highest level since October of last year. Confidence has been rising since Feb 2009 amid modest volatility.

Present Situation Index ROSE by 5.1 points to 118.3, its highest level since September 2015. This is also 7.3% ABOVE its year ago level. Present situation has been climbing for the past three years amid modest volatility.

The Expectations Index ROSE by 6.0 points to 84.5, its highest level since January. This is still 8.9% BELOW its year ago level. Expectations have been declining for the past year amid substantial volatility.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful”, moved lower by 0.1 points to 0.1.
Article by contingentmacro