Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Modestly

May 26, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims declined modestly and are at their lowest level in the past 4 weeks. Breakdowns of claims by state are available with a one week lag. New York state has seen substantial volatility in the last three weeks. The 4-week average is at 279k, still above the 13-week average that is now 266k, normally a potential indicator of a deteriorating trend were it not for the unique volatility from New York data in the last 3 weeks. Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended May 21st to 268k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 275k. The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 279k and the 13 week average was UNCHANGED at 266k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended May 14th to 2,163k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,161k to 2,153k. The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 2,151k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 4k to 2,011k during the week ended May 7th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended May 14th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro