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Case Shiller Home Prices: Further Appreciation

April 27, 2021
Bottom Line:  After a record month in January, home prices rose further in February, mostly as expected. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle remained the hottest markets.  The Chicago area continued to see the slowest home price gains.  Overall, the covid-induced structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban housing.  Moreover, the increase in mortgage rates since late 2020 has done little to dampen demand, with the trend pace of annual gains still running in the high single-digits nationally.
Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York broke down recent home price gains by county.  While the market narrative has focused on households moving long distances (New York to Florida, California cities to Texas, etc.), the data shows the vast majority of households are moving to nearby suburbs.  In addition to the hot markets, we noted from Case Shiller's data, the FRBNY data and chart below (available here) show the strong gains in places like the Connecticut suburbs of New York and the New Hampshire counties outside Boston.  Florida and Texas, meanwhile, have mostly seen gains close to the national average.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.17% (seasonally adjusted) in February to 248.0, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.1%.  Home prices are 11.9% ABOVE their year-ago level.
Nationwide home prices are now just 20.0% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels, and 81.3% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.2% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in February (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 9.0% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 18.2%.