Jobless Claims: Steady Amid Holiday
November 21, 2019
Bottom Line: Claims were steady in the week ended November 16th. Actual claims fell over 12k, but that was in-line with the seasonal factor, which reflected the Veteran's Day holiday. On a trend basis, we are still watching this series closely as the 4-week average for claims is now 221k, above the 13-week average of 216k. While it is still too early to call a turn in trend, this bears close watching. Jobless Claims were UNCHANGED during the week ended November 16th, 227k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 218k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3.5k to 221k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.2k to 216k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended November 9th to 1,695k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,690k to 1,692k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 1,693k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 9k to 1,459k during the week ended November 2nd. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended November 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors