Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound

April 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were modestly higher last week after falling sharply in the final week of March. In the last week of March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its method for seasonally adjusting jobless claims, bringing the newly reported figures sharply lower. Overall, the adjustments were significant, lowering seasonally adjusted claims in the last several months, but didn't change the trend, critical for assessing the labor market weekly. The trend in claims continues to suggest an improving and tight labor market.
Our Nowcast model predicts unadjusted claims and suggests this week is running a touch higher than last week.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 18k in the week ended April 9th to 185k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 172.25k, BELOW the 13-week average of 193.84615k but 386k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 2nd of Apr were revised up from +166k to +167k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 28.151k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 17k in the week ended March 26th to 1.523M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.54125M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.664615M and 2.336M BELOW the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors