The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Jobless Claims: Settling Into the 200k Area
March 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell slightly last week. The volatility of jobless claims has come down substantially with lower Covid case counts and restrictions largely lifted in all of the country. The 4-week average for claims was back below the 13-week average last week, suggesting the trend remains towards very slow improvement in labor market conditions. At this point, most jobless claims are due to normal friction in the labor market, and we expect claims to settle into a pace around 200k. Our Nowcast model suggests the current week is running just below 200k (with still three collection days to go).Initial Jobless Claims FELL 15k in the week ended March 12th to 214k, BELOW the 4-week average of 223k, BELOW the 13-week average of 230.76923k, and 551k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 5th of Mar were revised up from +227k to +229k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL 16.981k.Continuing Claims FELL 71k in the week ended March 5th to 1.419M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.463M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.604538M, and 2.704M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 26th of Feb were revised down from +1.494M to +1.49M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors