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Jobless Claims: Slight Rebound

March 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose slightly in the week ended March 5th after two weeks of sharp declines in late February. On a trend basis, claims are settling into a new equilibrium in the low 200s as continuing claims continue to decline. Overall, this is consistent with a continued solid labor market. Our Nowcast model suggests the current week is running below 200k (with still three collection days to go).
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 11k in the week ended March 5th to 227k, BELOW the 4-week average of 231.25k, BELOW the 13-week average of 229.92308k and 507k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 26th of Feb were revised up from +215k to +216k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 22.025k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 25k in the week ended February 26th to 1.494M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.5065M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.639308M and 2.663M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 19th of Feb were revised down from +1.476M to +1.469M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors